STATEWIDE–While the average price for a gallon of regular gas was around $3.16 in Indiana, Tuesday, you could see the national average drop to below $3 per gallon soon, said Patrick DeHaan, head of Petroleum Analysis for Gasbuddy.

“Ultimately as we get closer to Memorial Day we will likely see more stations going back below the $3 a gallon mark,” said DeHaan. “Into the summer, as summer does wear on, gas prices do tend to go down throughout the summer.”

DeHaan said the reason that prices haven’t already gone down here in Indiana are two-fold.

One reason is refinery maintenance. While refineries have been shut down for maintenance that has squeezed the gas supply and one of the basics of economics comes into play. The less gas available, the more expensive it is.

The second reason is price cycling, the phenomena in the Midwest where prices go down for a couple of weeks, then jump back up.

But, DeHaan said refineries are coming back online and OPEC has also announced they will continue to increase production.

“Just over the weekend we saw OPEC also say that for June now they’re going to ratchet up production by another 400,000 barrels a day,” he said.

That extra supply could help prices come down cheaper than $3.

DeHaan also warned, though, that cheaper gas is sometimes a harbinger or indication that the economy is not doing so hot.